How ignorance makes us "smart"
tl;dr: ignorance can be optimal
Consider a two-alternative choice test:
Which city has a larger population: City A or City B?
City A and City B are selected at random from a set of $N$ cities. Of these cities, $n$ are recognizable. The meaning of recognizable is central to the argument in the sense that recognition depends on context: familiarity with Paris (France) does not necessarily imply useful recognition of Paris (Ontario).
The expected proportion of correct inferences is
$$ f(n) = 2 \left( \frac{n}{N} \right) \left( \frac{N-n}{N-1} \right) \alpha + \left( \frac{N-n}{N} \right) \left( \frac{N-n-1}{N-1} \right) \left( \frac{1}{2} \right) + \left( \frac{n}{N} \right) \left( \frac{n-1}{N-1} \right) \beta. $$
Definitions:
- Recognition validity ($\alpha$) is the probability of a correct answer when only one choice is recognized, describing how well recognition correlates with the criterion.
- Knowledge validity ($\beta$) is the probability of a correct answer when both choices are recognized, describing how well a choice is supported by available knowledge.
Reference
Gigerenzer, Gerd, and Peter M. Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press, 1999.